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Ways to recover from a big loss

Ways to recover from a big loss

A calm plan for the quarter after a big loss.

A calm plan for the quarter after a big loss.

Owen Fairbanks

6 min read

A big loss rarely arrives as a surprise to the numbers, but it almost always feels like one. A major client leaves, a large invoice will not be paid, a launch costs twice the plan. The weeks that follow decide whether the loss stays a bad quarter or becomes a bad year. This is a calm, week-by-week plan for the quarter after a big loss.

Week one: know your runway

Before anything else, work out how long your cash lasts at the current pace. Take the cash you have today, add the payments you are confident will arrive, and subtract everything committed for the next thirteen weeks. Divide what is left by your monthly costs. That is your runway, and every decision depends on it.

Write it on one page with the assumptions next to it. A runway number nobody can question is better than a more precise one nobody trusts. If the page shows less than six months, the rest of this plan becomes urgent rather than sensible.

Cut what does not move the plan

With the runway in front of you, sort every cost into three groups: costs that keep customers served, costs that bring in new revenue, and everything else. The third group is where cuts start. Most teams find more there than they expect.

  • Pause hiring for roles that do not serve customers this quarter

  • Cancel or downgrade tools that are not used every week

  • Move annual commitments to monthly where you can

  • Delay large purchases until the runway is back above six months

  • Keep anything that protects the customers you still have

Make the cuts once and clearly, and explain each one. Several small rounds of cuts do more damage to morale than one honest decision made early in the quarter.

Renegotiate before you need to

Suppliers, landlords and lenders are far more flexible when you ask early and arrive with a plan. Call your largest suppliers in the first two weeks, explain what happened in a sentence, and ask for longer payment terms or a temporary reduction. Show them the runway page if it helps. A partner who is asked is usually willing; a partner who is surprised by a late payment rarely is.

Tell people early and plainly

The order matters. Tell your team before the rumours do, with the same one-page numbers you used yourself: what happened, how long the runway is, what is changing and what is not. People can handle bad news far better than uncertainty. If you have investors or a board, send them the same page in the same week, along with the plan for the next three months.

Run the quarter week by week

For the rest of the quarter, review cash every week at a fixed time. Update the thirteen-week view, check the runway and compare it with the plan. Celebrate the small recoveries, a new client or an early payment, because they matter to everyone. By the end of the quarter, the loss should be a known number with a plan around it rather than a weight the whole team carries.

Discussion

4
  • Danielle OkaforManaging Partner, Rivora

    The order matters. We once cut first and talked later, and lost a good person who assumed the worst. Next time we told the team before we changed anything.

    • Owen FairbanksCo-founder and CFO, Ledgerly

      Thank you for sharing that, Danielle. Telling the team early and plainly is the step most recovery plans leave out, and it is usually the one that matters most.

  • Elena PetrovaVP of Finance, Brightfold

    Renegotiating early is underrated. Two of our suppliers agreed to longer payment terms simply because we asked first, early in the quarter, and showed them the plan.

  • Javier MontoyaCo-founder, Veltis

    We lost our biggest client in June. Putting the runway on one page for the whole team to see was hard, and looking back it was clearly the right call for us to make.

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